May 27, 2013

Field of Dreamers: Selection Monday Has Arrived

By Sean Ryan & Phil Stanton

sean@collegebaseballinsider.com @collbaseball

phil@collegebaseballinsider.com @roadtoomaha

For the last few spots, we spent a lot of time discussing Seton Hall (in), New Mexico (in), Oklahoma State (in), Florida (in), Coastal Carolina (in), Texas A&M (in), Notre Dame (in), Auburn (out), William & Mary (out), San Francisco (out) and UC Santa Barbara (out).

All have positives, and all have negatives. Each could get in, each could be left out. Our projections are based on what we think the committee will do, not necessarily what we believe should happen.

A few highlights and questions:

·         We put New Mexico in based on winning the Mountain West by seven games, but the RPI took a hit the past couple of days. Do a couple bad days at the end of the year stain the rest of the season?

·         We put Notre Dame in based on RPI and a nice run in the Big East tourney. Will the Irish’s seventh-place finish in the Big East do them in?

·         We put Florida in based on it having the second strongest schedule in the nation and finishing barely ahead of Auburn (despite the Tigers winning the season series). Will the Gators’ weak finish doom them?

·         We put Seton Hall in based on second place in the Big East and RPI. But we wonder if the committee will take note that the Pirates were 19-17 vs. Top 200 teams and 18-2 against teams 201 or lower (per WarrenNolan.com)? We also wonder if the committee would take four from the Big East – Notre Dame or Seton Hall could miss out because of this (despite the fact the committee says it doesn’t look at conferences).

·         We put Oklahoma State in based on a second-place finish in the Big 12. Will four losses to end the season be a turnoff?

·         We put Coastal Carolina in and left William & Mary out despite the fact that both had similar years; the Chants appear to have a couple more quality wins than the Tribe, who were steady all season as the CAA’s second-best team (in the eighth-best conference)

·         We left San Francisco out based on RPI and some unexpected conference tourneys, and that the Dons couldn’t fall back on a regular-season crown like New Mexico or Sam Houston State.

·         We left UC Santa Barbara for similar reasons to San Francisco. A really good year, but maybe not quite good enough in the committee’s eyes.

·         And we left Auburn out, a really tough call when leaving Florida and Texas A&M in. The Tigers won series against the Gators and Aggies, and finished much stronger than the Gators. But the RPI was lower than the other two and their last-place SEC West finish, which we felt put them in danger.

So, what would we have done?

·         Probably capped the SEC at eight teams (rather than the nine we project), which would open up a spot. If we had to choose, we might have gone with Auburn for its series wins over Florida and Texas A&M and strong finish.

·         Find a way to get San Francisco and William & Mary in the field, likely at the expense of an SEC spot and either Seton Hall or Notre Dame.

·         Told conference favorites to win their tourneys so we didn’t have this mess. But we thank the likes of Connecticut, ETSU and San Diego State for creating the May Madness (or Maydness as we call it) – we wouldn’t have it any other way.