April 23, 2009

Field of dreamers

Maydness is right around the corner

By Phil Stanton and Sean Ryan

CollegeBaseballInsider.com

Co-Founders

Maydness is nearly upon us.

May Madness – or what we call Maydness – is near. It seems like the season started not so long ago, but Selection Monday is less than five weeks away.

We take our first look at the potential field. There are teams which are locks, others have much work to do. The team records are through games of Wednesday, April 21, as are the RPIs (courtesy of Boyd Nation at www.boydsworld.com).

Without further ado, here’s our early look the Field of 64 (happy teams in bold).

America East (1) – Maine (7-1, 24-13) currently sits in first, but has played the bottom two conference teams so far. Preseason favorite Binghamton (8-2, 16-15) has an easier remaining league schedule, but must go to Orono in May. The Bearcats are our pick for now.

ACC (8) – There are six locks as of now: Georgia Tech (13-5-1, 27-9-1, RPI 1), North Carolina (13-7, 32-11, RPI 3), Miami (Fla.) (11-10, 27-13, RPI 5), Clemson (12-9, 28-14, RPI 10), Virginia (11-7-1, 32-8-1, RPI 11), Florida State (12-7, 27-12, RPI 23). Boston College (10-9, 25-15, RPI 38) and Virginia Tech (9-11, 24-15, RPI 56) are in for now, but have work to do to stay. Wake Forest (6-15, 20-20, RPI 70) and Duke (10-11, 27-16, RPI 79) must have big finishes to make the field.

Atlantic Sun (1) – Jacksonville (14-7, 25-12, RPI 60) is in third, but would be the top seed in the tournament as first-place Kennesaw State (13-4, 21-15, RPI 93) and second-place Florida Gulf Coast (13-5, 22-16, RPI 75) are still transitioning to Division I status and are not eligible for the A-Sun tourney. The Dolphins get the nod, but keep an eye on Belmont (13-8, 24-17, RPI 100).
 

Atlantic 10 (1) – Rhode Island (12-2, 26-13-1, RPI 43) has risen to the top of the league standings and looks to be a solid squad. Second-place Dayton (11-4, 26-14, RPI 136) got swept by the Rams, but will play the conference tournament in its hometown. Preseason favorite Charlotte (7-8, 23-15, RPI 174) has won six of its past seven league contests and could make a late-season push. But URI is our pick for now.

Big East (2) – USF (12-3, 24-15, RPI 92) took two of three at Villanova to secure first place. The Bulls entertain West Virginia (11-4, 28-9, RPI 107) this weekend, and still must travel to Notre Dame (8-7, 23-15, RPI 101) and Louisville (11-4, 28-11, RPI 57). The league could get two bids if the Cardinals win the regular-season title and another team wins the tournament. USF will play the tourney close to home and is our pick to click.

Big South (1) – Second-place Coastal Carolina (10-4, 30-11, RPI 16) is playing for a No. 1 seed not only in the Big South, but in the NCAA Tournament. First-place Liberty (14-3, 27-12, RPI 96) must head to Conway in early May. Winthrop (12-6, 25-16, RPI 63) could move into the at-large picture with a successful weekend at Arizona State in May. The Chanticleers could be the lone league rep.

Big 10 (2) – First-place Ohio State (9-3, 29-9, RPI 18) and Minnesota (7-4, 24-12, RPI 26) are in good shape for bids. The Buckeyes have a chance to earn a No. 1 seed and host an NCAA Regional with a strong finish. Illinois (8-4, 23-12, RPI 78) and Indiana (8-3, 18-20, RPI 125) hope to crash the party.

Big 12 (6) – There are five current locks: Texas (12-6, 29-9, RPI 7), Texas A&M (11-7, 26-14, RPI 30), Baylor (10-7, 25-14, RPI 14), Oklahoma (8-7, 30-11, RPI 21) and Kansas State (8-7, 29-11, RPI 39). We’ll put Kansas (8-7, 27-14, RPI 50) in for now, primarily based on its sweeps of Texas and Oklahoma State. The Cowboys (5-9, 27-15, RPI 24) must climb in the league standings and have series remaining with Texas A&M, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech, a very tall order. Missouri (8-10, 21-21, RPI 42) needs conference wins over Texas Tech, Nebraska and Kansas.

Big West (3) - UC Irvine (11-1, 28-10, RPI 6) and Cal State Fullerton (6-6, 26-11, RPI 2) are playing for national seeds. Cal Poly (8-4, 27-9, RPI 33) is comfortably in. UC Riverside (2-7, 21-13, RPI 65) has a lot of work to do to get in the at-large picture.
 

Colonial (2) – First-place George Mason (11-4, 31-8, RPI 54) has a good chance of receiving an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the conference tourney. Georgia State (8-4, 26-15, RPI 115) and James Madison (8-7, 24-18, RPI 99) both could capture the tournament title, but we like UNC Wilmington (7-5, 21-15, RPI 61) to celebrate on its home field.

Conference USA (2) – First-place Rice (11-4, 28-10, RPI 4) is playing for a national seed. Second-place East Carolina (10-5, 30-12, RPI 27) is in good shape. Those are the only two sure bids for C-USA. Southern Miss (9-6, 25-15, RPI 80) and Tulane (5-7, 24-17, RPI 82) need a strong month of May to have a shot at an at-large bid.
 

Horizon (1) – Illinois-Chicago (10-2, 16-17) owns a two-game lead over Milwaukee (8-4, 15-19). The Flames dropped two of three to the Panthers earlier this month, but have a doubleheader in early May. Look for UIC to prevail.

Ivy (1) – Dartmouth (14-2, 20-11) took three of four from second-place Brown (12-4, 19-16) earlier this month to take control in the Red Rolfe Division. Princeton (8-8, 16-16) meets Cornell (8-8, 13-19) this weekend to decide the Lou Gehrig Division. The Big Green should take the Ivy title on its home field.

Metro Atlantic (1) – Manhattan (11-1, 26-10) sits atop the MAAC, but has series with Canisius (7-5, 22-17), Niagara (10-5, 15-24) and Rider (9-6, 18-15) over the next three weekends. We expect the Golden Griffins to grab the title in May.

Mid-American (1) – Ohio (12-3, 19-14) has slipped past Kent State (11-3, 30-8, RPI 55) in the Eastern Division. Miami (Ohio) (10-5, 20-16) sits in third in the East. Toledo (9-6, 16-19) is on top in the Western Division. The Golden Flashes should erase the disappointment of a loss in last year’s MAC title game by winning it this season.

Mid-Eastern (1) – Bethune-Cookman (11-1, 21-21) owns a three-game lead over Delaware State (8-4, 16-15) and should win the MEAC Tournament on its home field.

Missouri Valley (1) – Missouri State (9-2, 23-15, RPI 83) is in first after its sweep of Wichita State (5-5, 20-20, RPI 112) this past weekend. Indiana State (10-3, 24-13, RPI 91), Creighton (9-3, 21-18, RPI 135) and Illinois State (9-4, 19-13, RPI 126) are fighting for position near the top of the standings. The Shockers could still be dangerous on their home field in the MVC Tournament, but we think the Bears will be best.

Mountain West (2) – There is a log-jam at the top of the standings with New Mexico (10-5, 30-11, RPI 59), BYU (10-5, 23-15, RPI 46) and TCU (6-3, 25-11, RPI 12), with San Diego State (9-6, 27-15, RPI 29) a game back. The Horned Frogs are fighting for a top-seed in the NCAA Tournament and should win the MWC Tournament on its home field. The Aztecs should receive an at-large bid.

Northeast (1) – First-place Mount St. Mary’s (9-3, 17-17) must still face second-place Monmouth (8-4, 19-16) and third-place Central Connecticut State (6-5, 16-12) in conference series. Look for the Hawks to prevail in the NEC Tournament.

Ohio Valley (2) – Eastern Illinois (10-3, 28-9, RPI 49) has had a super season to date. Southeast Missouri State (9-3, 23-15, RPI 114) and Jacksonville State (7-5, 23-14, RPI 84) are nipping at its heels. Look for the Gamecocks to win the tourney and the Panthers to get an at-large bid.

Pac-10 (4) – Arizona State (13-2, 29-8, RPI 9) is fighting for a national seed. Oregon State (8-4, 23-9, RPI 35) is in solid shape for now. Washington State (8-4, 19-17, 58 RPI) and USC (9-6, 20-17, 52 RPI) have work to do for an at-large bid. We suspect that the Pac-10 will end up with three, but we’ll give them four spots for now.

Patriot (1) – Bucknell (10-6, 18-22) and Army (10-6, 21-16) are tied for first, but the Bison owns the tie-breaker with a series win over the Black Knights. Bucknell has an easier final conference series at Lehigh (3-11, 10-33, as Army goes to Lafayette (8-8, 19-20). Bucknell should secure the regular-season title and take advantage of home series to win the Patriot League title.

Southeastern (9) – Arkansas (11-6, 2711, RPI 8) and Georgia (13-5, 32-9, RPI 13) have sights on national seeds. LSU (11-7, 30-12, RPI 20), Florida (10-8, 28-14, RPI 17), Ole Miss (11-7, 30-11, RPI 22), Alabama (10-8, 27-14, RPI 34) and South Carolina (9-9, 27-15, RPI 28) are solid picks. Auburn (8-10, 25-16, RPI 32) and Kentucky (6-12, 21-19, RPI 51) are in for now, but need to add wins. Vanderbilt (7-10, 24-17, RPI 53) has to get hot in May to make a run.
 

Southern (2) – Elon (14-4, 25-13, RPI 25) and Georgia Southern (12-4, 29-9, RPI 19) are in for now. Western Carolina (11-6, 23-16, RPI 41), The Citadel (10-8, 23-16, RPI 88) and College of Charleston (11-10, 24-15, RPI 36) are fighting to get in the picture.

Southland (2) – This has been one of the most competitive leagues this season. Texas State (15-5, 28-10, RPI 40) currently sits on top, with Sam Houston State (14-7, 28-13, RPI 44) and Texas-Arlington (14-7, 23-17, RPI 85) right behind. Southeastern Louisiana (12-9, 23-17, RPI 81), Lamar (11-10, 25-17, RPI 147) and UTSA (11-10, 22-18, RPI 109) are within striking distance. We think the Southland will get two bids this season.

Southwestern (1) – Mississippi Valley State (13-3, 18-21) leads Jackson State (11-7, 31-15) in the Eastern Division, while Southern (13-4, 22-12) is ahead of Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11-9, 18-21) in the Western Division. The Jaguars should take the tourney title on their home field.

Summit (1) – Oral Roberts (11-0, 21-10) just completed a four-game sweep of second-place Centenary (6-5, 23-11). It looks like the Golden Eagles should again capture the conference tournament, which feels like the ORU Invitational.

Sun Belt (2) – Western Kentucky (14-4, 28-11, RPI 37) and Middle Tennessee (16-5, 28-11, RPI 45) are in good shape for now. Troy (11-5, 24-14, RPI 64) will try to win the tourney on its home field.

West Coast (1) – San Diego (8-4, 25-15, RPI 31) should win the championship series. Loyola Marymount (8-4, 24-19, RPI 77), Gonzaga (7-5, 25-13, RPI 69) and Pepperdine (6-6, 23-17, RPI 131) will fight for a spot in the championship series.

Western Athletic (1) – Hawaii (7-4, 24-14, RPI 15) should win the WAC tourney on its home field. Nevada (7-4, 18-20, RPI 117), New Mexico State (7-5, 32-8, RPI 144) and San Jose State (5-3, 27-12, RPI 62) will try to give the league two bids.

Last five in: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Boston College, UNC Wilmington, USC

First five out: Missouri, College of Charleston, Dallas Baptist, Western Carolina, BYU