June 15, 2014

Why They’ll Win

By Sean Ryan

CollegeBaseballInsider.com Co-Founder

sean@collegebaseballinsider.com @collbaseball

Eight remain, and realistically, the way this tournament has gone, you could make a case for any one of them to leave Omaha with a national championship.  

Here’s a look at why each of the teams will have the final dogpile.

TCU

The Horned Frogs are the hottest team of the Omaha Eight, going 32-4 since April 1. In those 32 wins, TCU allowed two or fewer runs in 26 games, and the Frogs lead the nation with a 2.19 ERA. Lefty Brandon Finnegan is filthy with 129 strikeouts in 97.2 innings, but Preston Morrison may be the most underappreciated pitcher in the country. Undrafted, the junior chews innings like bubble gum: he boasts a 1.32 ERA, and opponents hit .197 off of him. Beyond those two are a bunch of power arms, including shutdown closer Riley Ferrell, who has challenged death and taxes as certainties in life. He’s a big part of the reason TCU is 40-1 when leading after six innings. And the Frogs have game-changer Boomer (not Sooner) White, who made a game-saving diving catch and drove in the game-winner in a 22-inning Regional win over Sam Houston State. TCU has played five one-run games in the tournament, winning four of them – the Frogs leap in close games.   

Texas Tech

The Big 12 has three teams in Omaha, and the Red Raiders are thriving by flying under the radar. Texas Tech has three straight shutouts and has allowed four – four – runs in six NCAA Tournament games (0.65 ERA). The Red Raiders lean on lefties in a big way – each of their top four pitchers (by innings) are southpaws, including freshman Dylan Dusek who pitches to contact but never seems to get hit hard. Reliever/closer Johnny Drozd has been equally effective. With home runs at a premium in Omaha, Tech has two powerful bats in Eric Gutierrez and Adam Kirsch, who can turn a game around. Tyler Neslony went from reserve to superstar and brings some of the best offensive stats (.388 average, .612 slugging) into Omaha. First-time teams aren’t supposed to win the College World Series – don’t tell the Red Raiders that. They’ve already won 19 games more than a year ago and are looking for more.

Ole Miss

The Rebels were the second-best team in the best conference in the land during the regular season. After not getting a national seed, Ole Miss is playing with a chip, an edge, a confidence that it has something to prove. The Rebels beat the nation’s No. 1 team to get to Omaha, so facing the preseason No. 1 and highest seed remaining won’t be an issue. While most teams in Omaha lead with pitching and defense, Ole Miss mixes the best offense in Omaha with an underrated pitching staff. Austin Bousfield can do a little of everything, and catcher Will Allen is among the best in the nation. And Sikes Orvis is one of the few Omaha bats who can clear the fences in TD Ameritrade Park. As for those pitchers, they compiled a 2.72 ERA on the year and quieted SEC bats. They might not have as many dominant arms as others in the CWS, but they simply know how to pitch: pitch to contact to get outs. That bodes well in Omaha.

Virginia

The Cavaliers, the preseason No. 1 by Baseball Americaand Perfect Game, are playing like the No. 3 national seed and best team remaining in the field. The hitting, which has been suspect at times throughout the season, is peaking at the right time with first-rounders Derek Fisher and Mike Papi (and now Brandon Downes) leading the way. And pitching, Virginia is armed and dangerous. ACC co-pitcher of the year Nathan Kirby headlines the starters and another first-round draft pick, Nick Howard, locks down the bullpen. In between is an arsenal of arms that is first in the nation in hits per nine innings, second in WHIP and fifth in ERA. The Cavaliers also rank third nationally in defense. Virginia has 14 one-run wins this year, third-most in the nation, and close games have been the norm this tournament. Coach Brian O’Connor is an Omaha native whose likeness is part of the famous celebration statue outside the park – it’s time for a hometown hero.

UC Irvine

The Anteaters aren’t supposed to be here. They lost their final eight Big West games of the year to Cal Poly, Cal State Fullerton and Long Beach State. They snagged one of the final spots to the NCAA Tournament. And then they were sent to Corvallis and No. 1 national seed Oregon State. No worries for Mike Gillespie’s bunch, which mixed small ball and long ball to shock the Beavers. The next week, another orange-and-black-wearing OSU – Oklahoma State – fell victim to Irvine’s small-ball and timely hitting. Not to mention its bulldog on the mound, Andrew Morales. Everyone in the Anteaters’ order can and will bunt, but there is some pop from guys like Taylor Sparks, who has 29 extra-base hits. Now that they are here, the Anteaters’ have the confidence of knowing they are the only team to go on the road twice over the past two weekends and end up in Omaha. This is a confident group that doesn’t mind being the underdog, which makes it all the more dangerous.

Texas

The Longhorns lost one of their best arms in Dillon Peters. No big deal. Not only is it tough to get a hit against Texas (.228 BAA), it also is tough to get an extra-base hit – only 16 percent of hits against Texas have gone for extra bases, second only to Louisville (15 percent) of the remaining teams. Nathan Thornhill gives Texas a chance to win every time he starts, and the Longhorns can mix and match with eight other superior arms. Mark Payton has gotten on base 101 straight games, and Ben Johnson can run (21 for 21 SB) and drive the ball around the park. And then there’s the Augie factor. This is coach Augie Garrido’s 15th trip to the College World Series and he’s trying to win a title in his fifth different decade. Texas will be prepared. And the Longhorns want to prove they belong with the nation’s elite, despite not making the NCAA tourney the past two years.

Louisville

The Cardinals are the only team from last year’s College World Series to make a return trip this year – that experience will help. The pitching staff, which faced a nearly complete makeover from 2013’s Omaha team, has a brilliant starter in Kyle Funkhouser, who limits opponents to a .198 average and allowed only two homers in 400 at-bats. And if the Cardinals have a lead, they boast lights-out, all-world closer Nick Burdi, whose triple-digit fastball could make a cameo in the next “The Fast and the Furious” installment.  Is there anything Cole Sturgeon can’t do? He hits (.331); he runs (19 of 24 SBs); he throws (3-0, 1.98). Jeff Gardner has the power to threaten TD Ameritrade Park’s Grand Canyon-like feel. And coach Dan McDonnell brings the structure he learned at The Citadel, which reached Omaha when the Cardinals’ skipper was a player for the Bulldogs.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores have battled through the best conference in the land and are one of two SEC squads left standing. Offensively, Vandy can make a cup of coffee nervous – seven different players have more than 10 stolen bases, led by Dansby Swanson’s 18. And freshman Bryan Reynolds stepped into the lineup and led the Commodores in hitting and slugging (.494), playing way beyond his years. By the way, Vandy seems to have a few hundred power arms: If you’re lucky to get something going on one, get ready for another with equal or better stuff. Closer-turned-starter Carson Fullmer hasn’t allowed a homer this year in 76 innings and yields hitters a .186 clip. As a team Commodores pitchers allowed hitters a .208 average – and that’s after playing in the best league in the land. Coach Tim Corbin has built an elite program where many believed it never could be done – this is Vandy’s time and it expects to repeat in 2015.